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# Results

SAGA has working source-change, blocked-claim and calibration examples. The evidence below supports
a prototype; human usefulness and savings remain unmeasured.

## Where AI helps

The classifier labelled categories correctly on 73/79 records (92.41%), versus 44/79 (55.70%) for
the keyword baseline on the same AI-labelled validation set. That is evidence for category
classification on this dataset. Structured source-change detection tied its rules-only comparator at
4/4. Neither result establishes production effectiveness.

The busy replay's 52 inputs and 11 review records demonstrate the workflow. They are curated counts,
not a measurement of autonomous detection, recall or time saved.

## Classifier

Frozen validation contains 79 AI-labelled records. The test split remains sealed.

| Measure | Result |
|---|---:|
| Category accuracy | 73/79 · 92.41% |
| Scope precision / recall / F1 | 0.9556 / 0.9556 / 0.9556 |
| Disease accuracy | 84.44% |
| Supported-class macro F1 | 0.8695 |
| Fixed eleven-class macro F1 | 0.3952 |
| Safety recall | 2/5 |

Only five categories appear in validation. Category accuracy's 95% interval is 84.4–96.5%. The small
safety sample and missing classes limit broader claims. Safety recall of 2/5 is the main technical
evaluation limitation. Deterministic safeguards and qualified review provide additional controls;
they do not establish how many safety records the full system might miss.

Improving this requires independently reviewed safety examples and a fresh evaluation, not tuning
against these five records. [Current classifier
results](../artifacts/evaluation/classifier-source-conditioned-v1-fixed-validation.json), [v1.1
promotion comparison](../artifacts/evaluation/classifier-v1.1-promotion.json), and [system
results](evaluation/system-evaluation-v1.json) retain the detailed comparisons.

## Coverage experiment and workflow audit

A fixed broader-training candidate was rejected: category agreement fell to 69/79, scope recall to
42/45 and safety recall to 1/5. Disease agreement rose to 43/45. The preregistered release gates
failed, so v1.1 remains deployed. [Training and promotion
details](models.md#broader-coverage-experiment-september-2026) make the negative result inspectable.

The [AI walkthrough](https://github.com/wysh3/saga/blob/main/docs/evaluation/simulated-pilot-v2.md) inspected seven current renderer outputs and
three in-memory adversarial controls. Seven case checks were observed, all three controls passed,
and no render errors occurred across 18 current decisions. The walkthrough includes a verified
historical transition and explicitly simulated calibration. It does not measure human usefulness,
review duration or downstream benefit.

The new review-task selector can choose only among questions constructed from validated source
fields, or abstain. Its current examples concern an estimated milestone, termination rationale and
application history. This is a constrained source-specific capability; the previous finding that
free-form interpretations were withheld remains valid.

## Source changes

A protocol fixed six registry IDs and up to four consecutive versions before collection. The 21
returned versions contain 15 adjacent pairs: four field changes and eleven non-changes. Both the
learned and rules-only arms surfaced 4/4 changes, suppressed 11/11 non-changes and 21/21 repeated
observations. This chronology comparison establishes no AI advantage; it does not negate the
separate category-classification improvement.

The first run hid one safe status change because another field was sensitive. That was repaired;
[the original miss](https://github.com/wysh3/saga/blob/main/docs/evaluation/chronology-v1-before-repair.json) remains recorded. The final result
is development evidence, not untouched holdout performance or human relevance. The selected cohort
comes from existing registry sources, not a random prospective sample.

## Drafting and calibration

Four live GPT-5.6 Luna drafts completed; 11/11 quotes matched their source. The semantic verifier
accepted 4/4 factual headlines, while the exact verifier accepted 0/4 paraphrases. Neither retained
any of the eight generated interpretation fields. Fallback remains necessary. Both passed five small
known-answer controls. Model acceptance is not human factual validation.

The calibration example adds Medical to a new synthetic Access source while leaving a guideline
control unchanged. It demonstrates rule transfer, not measured stakeholder agreement.

## Human evidence still needed

False-discard performance is not measured by a real human-reviewed sample. The app now freezes
stratified samples across terminal filtering reasons, with source-observation units, recorded
inclusion fractions, persistent sample membership and separate human/simulated outcomes. Field
replacements on surviving records are excluded from that terminal population.

These controls make an audit reproducible; they do not supply a measured system-wide miss rate. The
pilot must adjudicate the sample. Keeping the test split sealed protects the evaluation; it is not a
missing MVP feature.

## Reproduce

```sh
uv run python scripts/evaluate_chronology.py
uv run python scripts/evaluate_live_drafting.py --recheck-recorded
uv run python scripts/summarize_incremental_evidence.py
```

These checks use isolated databases. The drafting recheck uses saved responses and makes no hosted
generation calls; semantic model weights may need an initial download.

[Protocol](https://github.com/wysh3/saga/blob/main/data/evaluation/chronology-v1/protocol.json) ·
[Chronology](https://github.com/wysh3/saga/blob/main/docs/evaluation/chronology-v1.json) · [Drafting](https://github.com/wysh3/saga/blob/main/docs/evaluation/drafting-v1.json) ·
[Calibration](https://github.com/wysh3/saga/blob/main/docs/evaluation/calibration-transfer-v1.json) · [Pilot](https://github.com/wysh3/saga/blob/main/docs/pilot.md)
## Comparison scope

The keyword baseline is our own rules implementation. These results do not establish superiority
over commercial intelligence products or human reviewers. See the [existing approaches comparison](https://github.com/wysh3/saga/blob/main/docs/pilot.md#existing-approaches-and-sagas-focus) for sourced product context and the proposed user study.
